Thoughtful development, Turn 1

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Uriuk
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Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#1 Post by Uriuk »

Next topic:
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=11483

I want to play game overtly, to discuss possible moves, plans and techniques. Each turn I will create a separate thread on the forum (with corresponding title). I want some "robotic" race because I want to play like supercomputer will do (and think).
Documentation enumerates them:
Robotic_Species.png
Robotic_Species.png (25.13 KiB) Viewed 2303 times
Only some of them are playable (alphabetically): Cray, Etty, Replicon
Cray_Species.png
Cray_Species.png (31.95 KiB) Viewed 2303 times
Etty_Species.png
Etty_Species.png (48.39 KiB) Viewed 2303 times
Replicon_Species.png
Replicon_Species.png (29.2 KiB) Viewed 2303 times
I believe, that AI should be very cautious, so I choosed to play for Etty.
Laenfa have even more stealthy planets, but them are not robotic.
Last edited by Uriuk on Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:56 am, edited 2 times in total.

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Oberlus
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#2 Post by Oberlus »

Welcome to the forums, Uriuk.

Please, don't open a thread for each turn, that could be hundreds of threads.

Uriuk
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#3 Post by Uriuk »

I think that all turns in on thread will be unreadable. That's why I still want one thread per turn. May be one per 10 turns as a compromise?

The galaxy settings are following:
Galaxy_settings.png
Galaxy_settings.png (204.96 KiB) Viewed 2297 times
Home World:
HomeWorld.png
HomeWorld.png (343.28 KiB) Viewed 2296 times

Uriuk
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#4 Post by Uriuk »

Now it is necessary to discover possible goals, make alternative plans of actions to achieve these goals, and make the decision for the first plan.

Possible goal #1: Automated History Analyser
Research:
8 RP / 2 Turns
Production:
100 PP / 5 Turns
One of the first goals which are usually recommended is "The Physical Brain" project and corresponding building. But this species have low production level, so it's unobvious move.
May be it is better to build troopships, in hope that somewhere near a productive natives planet resides.

Possible goal #2: Pair of shieldless combat ships
May be "Military Robotic Control" first will be better.
Research:
Robotic Production - 24 RP / 3 Turns
Military Robotic Control - 24 RP / 3 Turns
Mass Driver 2 - 8 RP / 2 Turns
Mass Driver 3 - 12 RP / 2 Turns
Mass Driver 4 - 20 RP / 2 Turns
Production:
1 Ship (2 mass drivers) - 89 PP / 2Turns
1 Ship (3 mass drivers) - 105 PP / 2Turns

Possible goal #3: Fleet with robotics shields
One attacking ship and several ships of type "Spatial Flux Bubble Hull"
Research:
All of the above, plus
Robotic Production (again) - 24 RP / 3 Turns
Asymptotic Materials - 20 RP / 2 Turns
Spatial Flux Bubble - 8 RP / 9 Turns
Production:
1 Shield ship - 17 PP / 2 Turns & 70 PP / 4 Turns = 87 PP / 4 Turns

Possible goal #4: Pair of scouts
Just to fill the production queue. But starting production points in the first turn are more valuable, than in future turns. So isn't building these scouts is the official cover for corruption in planetary government?

Possible goal #5: Troop ship

Possible goal #6: Colonizer Ship

Possible action #7: Do nothing, build stockpile
Until surveillance results arrive.

Should this all be researched in advance, or it's better to scout neighbourhood first?

To compare these plans I need to calculate investments, internal return rate and net present value of these projects.

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swaq
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#5 Post by swaq »

357 systems! Damn, this is going to be a long game. Why not Algorithmic Elegance as a top priority? For production scouts are usually a solid way to start, especially with 4 different paths from the homeworld.

Uriuk
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Why not Algorithmic Elegance as a top priority?

#6 Post by Uriuk »

The key assumptions of generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP, see also IFRS) are broken down into four subsets, namely business entity, going concern, monetary unit, and time period.
...
The “monetary unit” assumption is that all the amounts listed use one stable currency, and that any amounts in another currency are clearly listed.
The monetary unit principle is the assumption that money itself is treated as a unit of measurement, and that all transactions or economic events recorded in the accounts ... can be expressed and measured in monetary terms by a currency.
We have 2 (or more) types of measures - production points (PP) and research points (RP). We need unify them, and to express them in the single Etty's imperial currency (usually "Cr." = Credits).

The homeworld have
Population: 20 (population units)
Research:
Cultural Archives +5 RP
Research focus +4 RP
Production:
Industry focus +4 PP
Bad industry -1 PP
Cultural Archives +10 PP

Research focus: 10 PP + 9 RP
Production focus: 13 PP + 5 RP

So, let's assume that the same population can produce
13 PP + 5 RP = 10 PP + 9 RP
3 PP = 4 RP (for this species)

Let's assume that 12 Cr = 3 PP (1 PP = 4 Cr) and 12 Cr = 4 RP (1 RP = 3 Cr)
The order to focus the homeworld give
on research: 40 Cr (for 10 PP * 4 Cr) + 27 Cr (for 9 RP * 3 Cr) = 67 Cr
on production: 52 Cr (for 13 PP * 4 Cr) + 15 Cr (for 5 RP * 3 Cr) = 67 Cr

The full order for empire consists of:
1) orders for each planets (what to focus)
2) orders for each ships (where to fly)
3) orders for manufacturing complex (what to produce)
4) orders for scientific labs (what to research)
these orders are partially independent one from another, but they should correspond to some goals.

You proposed Goal #8: to improve gross domestic product of the empire by increasing research points available.
There is also possible Goal #9: to improve production points available (and they are more valuable in Credits)

Algorithmic elegance costs 24 RP and 3 Turns, 72 Credits, 24 Cr per turn.
Increases Target Research on all Research focused planets by 0.1 per Population.
After achieving this goal, the planet will produce 0.1 * 20 = 2 addition RP per turn (6 Credits)
The whole project will pay back after 3 + 12 Turns (72/6).
There are two more "plain improvements" available:

Goal #9: Robotic Production, costs the same (24 RP and 3 Turns, 72 Credits, 24 Cr per turn)
Increases target Industry on all planets with the Industry focus by 0.1 per Population.
But after this improvement the planet will produce more in Credits. 2 additional PP (8 Cr)
The whole project will pay back faster, after 3 + 9 Turns (72/8).

Will this change relative prices of PP and RP?
Production focus: 15 PP + 5 RP (or a bit less because of 75% penalty?)
Research focus: 10 PP + 9 RP
15 PP + 5 RP = 10 PP + 9 RP
5 PP = 4 RP
Yes!
(How to deal with this?)

Oh, 75% gives 6 Cr, not 8 Cr. So this project looks equivalent to Goal #8, but requires the change of planet focus to production.

Goal #10: Planetary Ecology (8 RP and 2 Turns, 24 Credits, 4 Cr per turn)
Increases the max population of Good and Adequate planets by +1. This bonus is not cumulative with Symbiotic Biology.
I don't know how production is counted, but assume that it is proportional to population.
So, after population growth, the Homeworld will produce
40 Cr + (21/5*3 + 15) Cr = 40 + 22.6 = 67.6 Cr
0.6 additional credits per turn
The project will pay off after 2 + 24/0.6 = 42 Turns

If I did all that correctly, then for this species it is better to achieve Goal #8 (from {8,9,10} set)
Last edited by Uriuk on Wed Jan 01, 2020 8:38 pm, edited 9 times in total.

Uriuk
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goal #1: Automated History Analyser

#7 Post by Uriuk »

will cost 24 credits, and 2 turns for research and
400 credits, and 10 turns (at current productivity of the planet) for production
The Automated History Analyser ... Increases target Research by 5.
5 RP is 15 Credits, and the whole project will pay off in 2 + 10 + 424/15 = 40.266 Turns

Even If I will change focus of the planet into production, that will not give much, just may be a couple of turns (but i am not sure).
100/10 vs ~100/13 = 10-7.69 = 2.31 turns + price of changing the planet focus.

Will this new building change the relative prices of PP and RP in Cr ?
Production focus: 13 PP + 10 RP
Research focus: 10 PP + 14 RP
13 PP + 10 RP = 10 PP + 14 RP
3 PP = 4 RP
No.

defaultuser
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#8 Post by defaultuser »

I don't tend to think of Etty as cautious, as their military prowess gives a boost to aggression. Frankly, I never worry about planetary stealth very much. I'm not sure what this "unified currency" is about, but I don't think it's useful. I definitely would research Physical Brain first and build that analyzer. Do not build troop ships on spec. The only time I do that is if I have nothing else useful to build and I don't want to stockpile the points.

It's not that useful to do detailed planning at this point. The first few turns of exploration will give much more direction to both future research and production. I try to start with a base of research that has proven to be useful. After PB, the next item on my list is Planetary Ecology. That opens up Adequate planets for colonization, greatly increasing the number of possible colonies. At this stage, colonization is one of your prime goals.

Uriuk
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#9 Post by Uriuk »

The first few turns of exploration
All we know about the galaxy by now is that 100% of known planets are desert planets. 100% of known stars have 1 planet suitable for colonization. We know nothing about existence of space monsters (never saw one). And the probability to lose colonizer ship is (9-1)/(357-1)*100% = 2.247% if it will collide with enemy warship (hull is 10 points of structure against 3 shots of power 4, 10 < 12).
So, it have direct sense to send colonizer to scout in any direction similar to other ships. It will arrive in a suitable planet after completing any starline (according to what is known by now). We have 4 routes and 4 ships. Scout should go down (and left), because it can reach the end of starline in 1 turn, and Frigate and Colonizer can't. Also colonizer should choose the next shortest route (i.e. up and right), because there might be need to return back. And the shorter the path the faster it will return. The same for warship (left), and the longest starline (left and up) is for remaining scout.

defaultuser
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#10 Post by defaultuser »

Are you trying to add some restrictions? I mean, that sort of thing just makes it harder for you. You should use the experience you gain each time you play to refine your skills. If you just ignore that, then progression will be slow.

Perhaps you're trying to build some SF story around the game. If so, let us know so I can check out of the thread.

I generally don't use the colony ship for exploration unless here is a close planet and it's not likely something will be discovered by the scouts immediately. Otherwise you might end up with the colony ship needing to take extra turns to get where it can be useful, understanding that it might also stumble on a suitable planet. The frigate is fine to use for "safe" exploration.

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Goal #11 Active Radar

#11 Post by Uriuk »

defaultuser wrote: Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:13 pmDo not build troop ships on spec. The only time I do that is if I have nothing else useful to build and I don't want to stockpile the points.
That's exactly the current situation. I don't know what to build, and the Goal "Build stockpile" (#7) looks worse than any others,
because "The time is the most precious resource"
I want to think out some calculation which should allow comparision of Goal "Pair of scouts" (#4) and Goal "Troop ship" (#5).

Etty's also have species bonus of supply, which mean that more planets are potentially available for exploration. This rise the value of additional scouts in comparison with other species.

And reduced vision (Detection Range) also require more scouts, or early radars.
Unlocks the Active Radar ship part and the Scanning Facility building, increases the Detection Range of all planets to 75, and increases the imperial Detection Strength to 30.
Detection Range 75 is fixed here. So for Etty's it should give 75 + 20 = 95 points of increase.

But description of "Scanning Faciliy" says
Increases Detection Range of the planet by 75.
I think this requires physical experiment, to check which theory (+95 vs +75) is correct.

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Oberlus
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Re: Goal #11 Active Radar

#12 Post by Oberlus »

Uriuk wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:32 am
Increases Detection Range of the planet by 75.
I think this requires physical experiment, to check which theory (+95 vs +75) is correct.
It gives +75 detection range. Where do you get that it could be +75+20?

Uriuk
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#13 Post by Uriuk »

the preposition "to" in phrase "increases the Detection Range of all planets to 75".
Because of this I summed it with "Bad Detection Range: -20 malus" of this species.

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Oberlus
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Re: Thoughtful development, Turn 1

#14 Post by Oberlus »

Uriuk wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:43 am the preposition "to" in phrase "increases the Detection Range of all planets to 75".
Oh, right. That should be corrected.
Edit: it should read something like "increases the Detection Range of all planets by 25".


The species malus/bonus is applied only once. So when a regular species has X detection range at any moment of game, a bad detection species will be X-20, a good detection species X+20, etc.

Uriuk
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Additional colonizer vs 2 additional scouts

#15 Post by Uriuk »

defaultuser wrote: Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:03 amit's not likely something will be discovered by the scouts immediately.
But the species which start to the stars for the first time don't know this! That's why it sounds more logical to start building a second colonizer than a troop ship.

We can try to create an approximate model of the galaxy to calculate the need in scouts.
Fully connected galaxy will have 357*(357-1)/2 starlines. But we estimate that average star have 4 starlines. So the total number of starlines is estimated as 357*4/2. With the supply of homeworld = 3, and fuel of scouts = 4/2 (forward and back), the summary explorable space is 5 links away. The upper limit of number of reachable stars is 4^5 (=1024, more than the whole galaxy), the lower limit is 4*5 (=20 stars).

2 scouts will spend at least 10 turns to visit all these star systems (but they may obtain information from shipwrecks). 2 additional scouts will save 5 turns (estimated), but their production time is 2 turns.

(I am trying to justify the choice between options with a colonizer and with scouts)
How economics of nation benefits from these 2 additional scouts? That will happen if they would find a better planet to colonize. If we have 8 types of planets and expect 20 planets in total, then 3 planets expected to be colonizable. But this is still not a sound calculation of their expected economic effect.

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